Sunday's snow chance and the challenges of forecasting - Cincinnati News, FOX19-WXIX TV

Sunday's snow chance and the challenges of forecasting

American Model American Model
European Model European Model
Canadian Model Canadian Model
CINCINNATI, OH (FOX19) -

With mostly dry conditions on Friday and Saturday, our next descent snow chance arrives on Sunday. There are some substantial questions about it though.
 
So what does it mean when a meteorologist says there are questions about a forecast? It means the various computer models are not in good agreement and there are still many possible outcomes.
 
Take a look at the three images attached. These are the output images for Sunday afternoon from the three primary computer models used to create forecasts: the European (ECMWF), Canadian (GEM), and American (GFS).
 
All three models show cold air over the Tri-State, but they differ in the amount of moisture that will be around. The American model has the most snow; we deem that darker shade of grey scattered snow showers. Meanwhile, the Canadian model has no snow at all in our area. In-between these two models lies the European model, showing snow flurries in the area.

When the models aren’t agreeing, the safest and usually most accurate solution is to take the average. In this case, the average solution is the European model’s solution. That’s why we’re currently calling for occasional snow flurries from late Saturday night through late Sunday night with accumulation around half an inch.
 
Could the American model end up being correct? Yes. Could the Canadian model end up being correct? Yes. Forecasts always change a little as an event gets closer. That’s why meteorologists always tell people to check the forecast every day.

You can always count on the First Alert Weather Team to consider all the options and make the best forecast possible by doing so.

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