While we’re just three days away from Irma beginning to impact the United States, there is still a lot of uncertainty in exactly where Irma is going to go.
A few models have Irma well off the east coast of Florida while others have the storm well of the west coast of the state. Either of these extreme possibilities would result in fairly limited impacts in the state.
Looking at individual models is not a wise move at this point though. Instead, all the models should be considered. Even better, all the versions of the different models.
This is where the graphic in this article comes in to play. It takes into account 53 versions of the European model, 23 versions of the American model, and 23 versions of the Canadian model. By plotting all these possible tracks, you can then determine the probability of the center (and worst conditions) being at any one spot.
Note that the highest probability for the United States right now is only 65% in South Florida. Beyond that, the chance of the center being over any one spot goes down substantially as you go north.
When you look at the state of Florida as a whole however, it’s difficult to see the state escaping without significant impacts. Even if the center misses the state, tropical storm force winds extend across the large width of the storm.
While the entire state of Florida should be preparing now, it’s still too early for those in other states to start taking action. Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina could all ultimately see a landfall, but the chance right now is still low. If Irma tracks along the west coast of Florida instead of the east, the impacts in those states would be considerably less.
We anticipate model agreement to improve in the next 24 hours. Stay with Fox 19 for the latest.
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